"Yesterday's home runs don't win today's games." - Babe Ruth
Saturday's featured race in Northern California is the $75k Everett Nevin, a five and a half furlong sprint for juveniles. Interestingly enough, none of the entrants in the Everett Nevin has visited the winner's circle multiple times, so each of the final four contests on Saturday's card will be for non-Winners of Two Lifetime. And with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Pleasanton.
RACE 5 - Alw 50000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Autism Ability (Morning Line 9-2)
B’s
# 3 Ace and Kings (ML 3-1)
# 4 Cool Mountain Lad (ML 8-5)
C's
# 2 Kodiaction (ML 12-1)
# 5 Handr'sdream (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Strut to the Wire (ML 7-2)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career. For some reason, for whatever reason, that information is rarely, if ever, included in the running lines of the Past Performances.
Two-thirds of this field is exiting a common race, a June 20 contest over this track at today's distance at this class level. Of those four, Autism Ability strikes me as the one most likely to move forward, as Autism Ability probably needed that last race, as he was coming off a six month layoff. Ace and Kings also looks like a strong candidate to improve off that June 20 effort, as Ace and Kings will be going third off the layoff, and Ace and Kings could rebound back to that winning effort on June 5.
Cool Mountain Lad graduated in his debut last time out; and while Maiden Claiming winners tend to be poor bets their first time facing winners, I think if Cool Mountain Lad can bring the quickness that he showed on the synthetic surface in his debut over to this dirt track, then Cool Mountain Lad is going to be tough to catch. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Hawk Hill (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Counting Cards (ML 12-1)
# 4 Enos Slaughter (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Alibi for Mischief (ML 5-2)
# 3 Wink and a Dream (ML 4-1)
# 5 Barbiere (ML 6-1)
While this contest was carded for open company, it's worth noting that all entrants in this field are California bred.
Hawk Hill took the Place at this class level last time out over this track. Counting Cards ran well in his only prior try at one turn racing, and Counting Cards could move up with the drop in class.
Enos Slaughter is another class dropper that could move up, though it's fair to be suspicious whenever a horse is dropped in price following an extended vacation. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Clm $4k N2L - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Paper Boy (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Orczy (Ire) (ML 9-5)
# 2 Incredible Champ (ML 6-1)
# 7 Quipo (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Wynnville (ML 8-1)
# 4 Northern Quest (ML 12-1)
# 6 Collusion Delusion (ML 10-1)
Paper Boy and Orczy (Ire) are exiting a common race over this track at today's distance, where Orczy got under the wire a length in front of Paper Boy. However, I'm giving Paper Boy the edge today because Paper Boy was up near the pace in that prior contest, which is not Paper Boy's usual running style. That suggests to me that Paper Boy could be sitting on a big one today.
Quipo and Incredible Champ filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Everett Nevin $75k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Mr. T's Thirsty (ML 8-5)
B's
# 2 Stanford Bay (ML 6-1)
# 5 Heaven Shines (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Highland Ghost (ML 8-1)
# 4 Hijo Galante (ML 7-2)
# 6 Thirsty Always (ML 8-1) # 7 Drinking Again (ML 10-1)
# 8 Love Candy (ML 12-1) # 9 North Sea (ML 15-1)
As mentioned in the intro, these are juveniles, and none have won more than once. Mr. T's Thirsty ships in from downstate having run well in each of his two prior starts, and Mr. T's Thirsty seems to be one that brings his track with him wherever he goes.
Stanford Bay and Heaven Shines are both trained by Jonathan Wong, and both Stanford Bay and Heaven Shines looked impressive in their respective debut victories. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 6 with 5 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,6 with 1,4,6 with 1,2,5,7 with 2,3,5 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 6 with 5 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3,5 with 5 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 6 with 3,4,6 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 6 with 5 with 1,4,6,7,8,9 $3.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:50 EDT / 4:50 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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