“Everything is both simpler than we can imagine and more complicated than we can conceive.” - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Sunday's featured race in Southern California is the $150k Solana Beach, a turf route for California Bred or California Sired fillies and mares. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Flat Out Joy (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Pasito (ML 6-1)
# 7 Jamminjl (ML 30-1)
C's
# 2 Traffic Stopper (ML 4-1)
# 3 Daring Cat (ML 20-1)
# 5 Secret Mistress (ML 6-1)
# 6 Coal Shaft (ML 15-1)
# 9 Angel's Advocate (ML 8-1)
# 10 Listen to Blue (ML 12-1)
# 11 Secret Maneuver (ML 20-1) # 12 Bold Mistress (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 4 What Goes On Tour (ML 8-1) and # 13 Run Like Kona (No Line)
First things first: best of luck to Del Mar track announcer Trevor Denman, as having to call a field containing Secret Maneuver, Secret Mistress, and Bold Mistress could cause Denman to reconsider his decision to return to work.
Based upon talent alone, Flat Out Joy looks as if she should win this contest by the length of the stretch. After all, Flat Out Joy took the Place last time out against more expensive stock, and two starts prior to that Flat Out Joy took the Place versus even classier foes.
But therein lies the concern. Flat Out Joy has taken the Place five times in her twelve race career, with just the one lifetime victory. Such a record strongly implies that this is a runner who is more than happy to settle for minor awards when competing in races that she should win.
So, for that reason, Flat Out Joy won't be a single in this leg on my main ticket. So who do I put alongside Flat Out Joy? Well, Pasito, who lost by just a nose at this class level last time out, looks like a logical contender. But Pasito, with six Place finishes to go along with her one career Win in twenty-one lifetime starts, seems to enjoy settling for minor awards just as much as Flat Out Joy does.
Now, it's quite possible that Flat Out Joy and Pasito drive together side-by-side through the stretch, far enough ahead of the rest of the field, where the race becomes a contest between which one of those two can out-hang the other. But it's also possible that, while those two are battling to NOT get under the wire first, that some other runner goes right past them for the Win. But which runner? Could be any of them. So, for that reason, I'm just going to add the longest shot on the Morning Line, Jamminjl, to my main ticket, and watch what happens. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] The Solana Beach $150k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Warren's Showtime (ML 6-5)
B's
# 1 Pulpit Rider (ML 5-1)
# 2 Leggs Galore (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Nardini (ML 12-1)
# 4 Sedamar (ML 4-1)
# 6 Cassie Belle (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 5 Warm Summer (ML 15-1)
Warren's Showtime and Leggs Galore filled out the Exacta in the Grade 3 Wilshire last time out. Pulpit Rider joined that pair to complete the Trifecta in the Fran's Valentine two starts back. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Leprino (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 4 Cajun Treasure (ML 5-1)
# 7 Causeididitmyway (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Dr. Troutman (ML 6-1)
# 2 Owning (ML 20-1)
# 5 Itsthattime (ML 6-1)
# 8 Royal Insider (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Route Six Six (ML 10-1)
Leprino, winner over this main track for $16k last time out, goes first off the claim for Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with such. Cajun Treasure took the Place at this class level last time out.
Causeididitmyway was just a half length behind Leprino at the wire last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - Alw 50000s N3L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Liar Liar (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Vantastic (ML 4-1)
# 3 Foothill (ML 12-1)
# 11 Sea of Liberty (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Twilight RIder (ML 30-1)
# 4 Nerves of Steel (ML 8-1)
# 5 East Rand (ML 12-1)
# 7 Fuego Caliente (ML 15-1)
# 8 Best Chance (ML 15-1)
# 12 C Falls (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Seeking Refuge (ML 4-1) and # 10 Onenightstandards (NL)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career. For some reason, for whatever reason, that information is rarely, if ever, included in the running lines of the Past Performances.
Liar Liar (Ire) took the Show against classier competition over this turf course last time out. Vantastic could improve going third off the layoff.
Foothill could move up with a cleaner trip. Sea of Liberty is making his second start for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 7 with 6 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,7,8 with 1,2,7 with 4,6,7 with 1,3,9,11 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12 with 7 with 6 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3,4,6 with 6 with 9 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 1,2,5,8 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 6 with 2,4,5,7,8,12 $3.00
Total: $65.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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