“The struggle you're in today is developing the strength you need tomorrow.” - Robert Tew
The $100k Shared Belief, a two turn contest on the main track for three year olds, is Sunday's featured race in Southern California. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Bella Vita (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Livingmybestlife (ML 8-1)
# 4 Queengol (ML 6-1)
# 9 Big Sweep (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Melting Snow (ML 4-1)
# 3 Stella Noir (ML 8-1)
# 5 Focus First (ML 12-1)
# 7 Last First Kiss (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tiz a Master (ML 12-1)
For those who take note of such things, none of the entrants in this field will be running with the $40k price tag on their head.
Bella Vita had a bit of a rough go of it last time out. Bella Vita should also appreciate the drop in class. Livingmybestlife looks quickest here, and Livingmybestlife could benefit from the rail draw.
Big Sweep and Queengol filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 She's a Dime (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 1 Big Clare (ML 7-2)
# 2 Keep Dancing (ML 4-1)
# 4 Warrens Candy Girl (ML 6-1)
# 7 Bella D (ML 5-1)
# 10 Warrior's Moon (ML 12-1)
C's
# 3 Sunshine Babe (ML 30-1)
# 5 Rose's Crystal (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lena's Big Day (ML 12-1)
# 9 Big Stretch (ML 8-1)
# 11 Big Mama Sue (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 12 Super Game (ML 8-1); # 13 Gotta Be Lucky (ML 20-1); and # 14 Nice Ice (ML 5-1)
Since Nice Ice failed to draw in, none of the runners leaving the gate in this contest will be up for sale for the $20k claiming price.
She's a Dime is dropping in from open company to this state restricted contest, and She's a Dime should appreciate the class relief. In addition, if She's a Dime can bring her speed from the main track onto the turf, then She's a Dime could be all alone on the front end all the way to the wire.
Big Clare, Keep Dancing, Bella D, and Warrior's Moon filled out the bottom rungs of the Super High Five at this class level last time out, all within half a length of each other. Warrens Candy Girl graduated in her ninth try last time out; perhaps Warrens Candy Girl has finally figured it out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Shared Belief $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Team Merchants (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Medina Spirit (ML 7-5)
C's
# 1 Willy the Cobbler (ML 20-1)
# 3 Rock Your World (ML 8-5)
# 5 The Great One (ML 6-1)
# 6 Stilleto Boy (ML 6-1)
Toss out that try on the turf, and Team Merchants has shown improvement in each of his career starts. Medina Spirit, still the Kentucky Derby winner, looks ready to roll off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Big Summer (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Crash Corrigan (ML 7-2)
# 9 Torrid Tommy (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Mount Olympic (ML 8-1)
# 3 Spanish Channel (ML 30-1)
# 4 Aligato (ML 8-1)
# 5 Zero Down (ML 10-1)
# 6 Scottocapo (ML 5-1)
# 7 Surplus (ML 5-1)
# 8 Back in Action (ML 10-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 11 Va Va Voom (ML 15-1) and # 12 Wearenotbadpeople (ML 6-1)
Big Summer took the Place at this class level last time out. Crash Corrigan has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last three starts. Perhaps the cutback in distance combined with the freshening will propel Crash Corrigan into the winner's circle.
Torrid Tommy looks best among the debut runners. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 4 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6,9 with 1,2,4,7,8,10 with 2,4 with 2,9,10 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,7,8 with 8 with 4 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,5,6,9,11 with 4 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 1,3,5,6 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 4 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8 $3.50
Total: $83.50
Post Time for Race7 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Comments